Category Archives: polls

Fox News Poll: Tom Tancredo Now Within 3 of John Hickenlooper For Colo. Governor

Tom Tancredo has edged within 3 points of  Denver Democratic Mayor John Hickenlooper in the latest Fox News Poll.  Hickenlooper now takes 47 percent of the vote to Tancredo’s 44 percent.  Maes drew just 6 percent support, down from 10 percent two weeks ago.  Seventy three percent of Republicans backed Tancredo over their party’s nominee.  Tancredo told crowds this past weekend  he needs 80 percent GOP support to win.

The poll of 1,000 likely voters was conducted for Fox News by Pulse Opinion Research on October 30.  The poll has a 3 point margin of error, making the race a toss-up.  Full demographic cross-tabs are here, and the complete questionnaire is here.  The Fox News article also has the polls for  key races in other battleground states.

Buck Leads Bennet 50-46 In Latest Fox News Poll

Republican tea party challenger Ken Buck now leads appointed Democratic Senator Michael Bennet 50-46 in the latest Fox News Poll in the race for the U.S. Senate in Colorado.    Pulse Opinion  Research conducted the  survey of 1,000 likely voters on Oct. 30, which carries a  margin of error of only 3 points.   The poll reflects a 4-point increase for Buck over the previous survey conducted two weeks earlier.

Full cross-tabs for the poll are here, and the complete questionnaire is here.  The article on the poll includes analysis of all the other battleground races.

Pollster Forecasts Tancredo Win For Colo. Governor, GOP Retake Of Both State House And Senate

The Businessword’s Don Johnson reports that David Flaherty, the president and CEO of  Magellan, a Republican leaning poll with excellent turnout models,  predicts Tom Tancredo will beat Denver Dem Mayor John Hickenlooper in Tuesday’s Colorado governor’s race.   Flaherty also predicts Republicans will take both the state House of Representatives and the state Senate.

Other polls show Tancredo trailing in everything from tight contests to a dubious CNN outlier that gives the hard left Hick a double-digit lead.

So why does Magellan think Tancredo will win?  According to  Don Johnson’s interview with Flaherty:

Flaherty said polls that show John Hickenlooper winning the gubernatorial race are using demographics and turnout numbers that incorrectly skew their results in favor of Democrats.

“I do believe that Tom Tancredo is going to win,” Flaherty declared. In recent polls, Tancredo has about 73% of Republican voters. Flaherty thinks Tancredo will wind up with over 80% of Republicans. It will be in the low 80s, he said.

Tancredo is benefiting from Dan Maes’ decision to stay in the race, Flaherty said. Because Maes stayed in the race, Hickenlooper and the Democrats figured that Tancredo and Maes would split the conservatives’ and unaffiliated voters’ and that they didn’t have anything to worry about. If Maes had dropped out, as Tancredo and Republican leaders asked him to, the Democrats would have attacked Tancredo, he said.

Now that Tancredo is poised to win, Flaherty said, it’s too late for the Democrats to attack Tancredo.

The excellent post at Businessword has lots more details on these races, as well as the attorney general contest.

Dem. Poll Shows Hickenlooper Lead Trimmed To 3%: Colo. Governor’s Race a Toss-Up

Public Policy Polling, a Democratic-leaning polling firm, just released a poll that shows Hickenlooper’s lead over Tom Tancredo trimmed to only three points in the volatile Colorado governor’s race, 47-44.   Dan Maes proved my colleague Don Johnson’s awesome predictive powers by scraping only 5% .  PPP surveyed 818 likely Colorado voters from October 21st to 23rd. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.4%.

The PPP survey  backs up the latest Magellan poll that put Hickenlooper and Tancredo in a statistical tie at 44-43,  and casts even more doubt on the recent Denver Post/Survey USA poll, which put Hickenlooper on top by six.  Ben DeGrow has an excellent analysis here.

Given the Magellan survey may have understated Tancredo’s likely performance given that it relied on 2008 and earlier voter turnout patterns instead of the likely more conservative turnout advantage this election, there’s a good shot Tancredo is really in the lead.  PPP, which often works to spin the results favorably for the Democrat, had this encouraging outlook for Tancredo supporters:

Hickenlooper’s been unable to rise above the 47-48% mark in PPP’s polls over the last three months. When Tancredo and Maes were splitting the vote relatively evenly it looked like that would be enough to win but now Hickenlooper really appears to be at risk of losing. Given the trajectory of the race it is not inconceivable that Tancredo could pick up a good chunk of even the small amount of support Maes has remaining and 38% of the undecideds are Republicans to only 23% who are Democrats. Those two data points suggest that Tancredo still has more room to grow.

A few months ago, I and several other conservative bloggers thought Business Word’s Don Johnson had truly lost it in predicting Maes would only garner five percent.  I thought the “R” after the name Maes would in and of itself guarantee him a much higher split.  Not only is my being so badly wrong encouraging for this election, but I think it speaks to the potential strength of conservative and libertarian third-party candidates generally over party label.  I think we are seeing the same phenomenon with Lisa Murkowski in Alaska.

Then again, Maes is a unique case.  PPP’s survey revealed Maes has the lowest favorability ratings of any candidate in the country.

Maes is in a class of his own as the most unpopular candidate running for office anywhere in the country this year. A remarkable 75% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of him to only 8% who see him in a positive light. He’s pretty universally reviled by Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike.

Let’s hope Tancredo keeps growing into his growing room and that Colorado is spared the train wreck that would define a Hickenlooper reign.

Dan Maes Cuts Hickenlooper Lead to 8 Points in Latest Colo. Governor’s Poll

Republican candidate Dan Maes has gained on Democrat John Hickenlooper in the latest poll  from Reuters/Ipsos, and now trails him by only 8 percentage points, 41-33 percent.  Tom Tancredo is running a distant third at 16 percent. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.  And, in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup,  the poll shows Hickenlooper and Maes tied 45-45.

The Reuters poll also shows a four percentage point narrowing of the spread between Hickenlooper and  Maes since the Rasumussen survey conducted on August 11, the day after the primary.  That poll, with the same margin of error, showed Hickenlooper 43, Maes 31, and Tancredo 18.

Though the Maes campaign has not yet commented on the poll, my read is that long-delayed critical coverage of Hickenlooper’s mismanagement of the Denver Police Department has resonated with voters.  Though the polling was conducted August 20-22, the scandal has been erupting for the past two weeks.

Today, the Hick’s  childishly defensive police chief, Gerald Whitman, made a front page story where his tears practically oozed from the Denver Post’s home page, and was mocked in an opinion piece by Denver Post Editor Chuck Plunkett.   All of this follows on the heels of the resignation of Denver Police Department Safety Manager Ron Perea over several beating and perjury incidents by Denver Police officers in which Perea went against investigative recommendations and gave wrist slaps that Hickenlooper had defended before becoming embroiled in electoral turmoil.

Ken Buck Leads Bennet 49-40 in Reuters Colo. Senate Poll

In a poll released today,  Reuters/Ipsos reports Colorado Republican Ken Buck leads appointed Democrat Senator Michael Bennet 49-40 percent.  The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.  The Reuters surveys tend to be liberal leaning, so the news bodes well for the Buck campaign’s  focus on Bennet’s “rubber stamp” support for Barack Obama’s failed economic policies.

The Reuters poll also shows a jump for Buck since the Rasumussen survey conducted on August 11, the day after the primary.  That poll, with the same margin of error, showed Buck with a 46-41 lead over  the appointed Democrat incumbent  Bennet.

Hickenlooper 43, Maes 31, Tancredo 18 in Rasmussen’s First Post-Primary Colo. Governor Poll

In the first post-primary Colorado governor’s race poll, Rasmussen reports Republican nominee, Dan Maes, received a higher than expected 31 percent of the votes when pitted against Democrat Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper and former Congressman Tom Tancredo, running under the American Constitution Party banner.  Hickenlooper received 43 percent and Tancredo 18 percent. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and only five percent (5%) are undecided.

Virtually everyone believes Hickenlooper will win the governorship if the race remains a three-way contest, and Colorado is now ranked Solid Democrat in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.

Rasmussen conducted its  survey of 750 Likely Voters  on August 11, 2010, the day after the Colorado primary.  The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Ken Buck Leads Michael Bennet 46-41 In Rasmussen Colo. Senate Poll

In the first poll conducted since Colorado’s August 10, 2010 primary, Republican nominee Ken Buck leads appointed Democrat Senator Michael Bennet 46-41 percent, Rasmussen reports.  The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Colorado was conducted on August 11. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Rasmussen notes:

Colorado Republicans appear to have come back together a bit quicker than Democrats. Buck now gets 88% support from GOP voters, while 79% of Democrats support Bennet. The Republican leads by just five points among voters not affiliated with either party.

These results are similar to those from before the primary.

Bennet was the Denver school superintendent who was named to the Senate early last year when Ken Salazar resigned to join President Obama’s Cabinet. A county prosecutor, Buck has consistently led Bennet in matchups back to March, capturing 44% to 48% of the vote. Bennet in those same surveys has earned 38% to 42% support.

The poll is great news for Republicans, as Buck was underfunded in the primary.  According to the Denver Post, Buck raised only $1 million compared to $8 million by the Obama-backed Bennet.  Bennet reportedly has $1.6 million in the bank,  but the GOP establishment is gearing up to provide generous funding to Buck, and it is widely believed the 527 and PAC support provided Buck’s establishment opponent, Jane Norton, will now inure to Buck.  The National Republican Senatorial campaign has also set up a Bennet:  Wrong for Colorado website.  And Senator Jim DeMint’s Senate Conservatives Fund, will continue to support Buck, after providing considerable support for his primary campaign.

Buck Even With Bennet, Norton Trails in Latest Poll: Likely U.S. Senate Dem Primary Winner Receives High Colo. GOP Crossover Support

In a poll just released this morning,  Republican U.S. Senate contender Ken Buck  polls even given a 3.1% margin of error with likely Democrat primary winner, appointed Colorado Senator Michael Bennet.  The poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling, shows Bennet leads Jane Norton 46-40 and Ken Buck 46-43. Romanoff leads Buck 43-42, but trails Norton 43-42.

Colorado’s aberrational voting habits are displayed in what was for me, a stunning 10-11 percent of registered Republican voters crossing over to vote for Bennet.  I assume most of these are Republicans who work for the government, and have gone unscathed by the recession.

The poll is chock full of all sorts of interesting tidbits:

Only the Illinois Senate race can match the Colorado one for the unpopularity of all its combatants. Bennet’s approval rating is a 32/48 approval spread. Usually you don’t get reelected with those kinds of numbers but Norton’s favorability split is a net -16 at 28/44 and Buck’s is even worse at -20 (26/46). Romanoff has the best numbers at -2 (35/37) but that may not mean much if Bennet does indeed survive the primary as our poll yesterday suggested he probably would.

Bennet leads Buck and Norton because he’s counteracting two major national trends confounding Democrats elsewhere. He’s getting more crossover support than either of the Republicans, winning 11% of the GOP vote to Norton’s 6% of Democrats, and 10% of the GOP vote to Buck’s 6% of Democrats. He’s also doing decently with independents, leading Norton 43-36 and trailing Buck only 40-39. We find most Democrats across the country trailing by double digits with indy voters.

Romanoff actually polls better than Bennet with independents, leading Norton by 9 and Buck by 7 with them. But he does worse than Bennet overall because Democratic voters are less unified around him. He gets 73% of the vote from his party against Norton, compared to 83% for Bennet, and 77% against Buck compared to 84% for Bennet.

Whatever the final match up ends up being this race will be close but Democratic prospects are looking better than they did around the start of the year and given Barack Obama’s upside down standing at 44/50 in the state this isn’t a bad place for their candidates to start the general election.

Conservatives can only hope that this Democrat popularity trend claimed by the poll is incorrect – particularly in light of the recent revelations about Bennet’s failed, exotic Wall Street Denver Public Schools debt financing deal that made the front page of the New York Times (but was downplayed in the Denver Post).  Regardless, a good victory speech could easily boost GOP prosepects – something unlikely to come out of the mouth of the patrician Bennet.