Tag Archives: John Hickenlooper

Fox News Poll: Tom Tancredo Now Within 3 of John Hickenlooper For Colo. Governor

Tom Tancredo has edged within 3 points of  Denver Democratic Mayor John Hickenlooper in the latest Fox News Poll.  Hickenlooper now takes 47 percent of the vote to Tancredo’s 44 percent.  Maes drew just 6 percent support, down from 10 percent two weeks ago.  Seventy three percent of Republicans backed Tancredo over their party’s nominee.  Tancredo told crowds this past weekend  he needs 80 percent GOP support to win.

The poll of 1,000 likely voters was conducted for Fox News by Pulse Opinion Research on October 30.  The poll has a 3 point margin of error, making the race a toss-up.  Full demographic cross-tabs are here, and the complete questionnaire is here.  The Fox News article also has the polls for  key races in other battleground states.

Pollster Forecasts Tancredo Win For Colo. Governor, GOP Retake Of Both State House And Senate

The Businessword’s Don Johnson reports that David Flaherty, the president and CEO of  Magellan, a Republican leaning poll with excellent turnout models,  predicts Tom Tancredo will beat Denver Dem Mayor John Hickenlooper in Tuesday’s Colorado governor’s race.   Flaherty also predicts Republicans will take both the state House of Representatives and the state Senate.

Other polls show Tancredo trailing in everything from tight contests to a dubious CNN outlier that gives the hard left Hick a double-digit lead.

So why does Magellan think Tancredo will win?  According to  Don Johnson’s interview with Flaherty:

Flaherty said polls that show John Hickenlooper winning the gubernatorial race are using demographics and turnout numbers that incorrectly skew their results in favor of Democrats.

“I do believe that Tom Tancredo is going to win,” Flaherty declared. In recent polls, Tancredo has about 73% of Republican voters. Flaherty thinks Tancredo will wind up with over 80% of Republicans. It will be in the low 80s, he said.

Tancredo is benefiting from Dan Maes’ decision to stay in the race, Flaherty said. Because Maes stayed in the race, Hickenlooper and the Democrats figured that Tancredo and Maes would split the conservatives’ and unaffiliated voters’ and that they didn’t have anything to worry about. If Maes had dropped out, as Tancredo and Republican leaders asked him to, the Democrats would have attacked Tancredo, he said.

Now that Tancredo is poised to win, Flaherty said, it’s too late for the Democrats to attack Tancredo.

The excellent post at Businessword has lots more details on these races, as well as the attorney general contest.

Dem. Poll Shows Hickenlooper Lead Trimmed To 3%: Colo. Governor’s Race a Toss-Up

Public Policy Polling, a Democratic-leaning polling firm, just released a poll that shows Hickenlooper’s lead over Tom Tancredo trimmed to only three points in the volatile Colorado governor’s race, 47-44.   Dan Maes proved my colleague Don Johnson’s awesome predictive powers by scraping only 5% .  PPP surveyed 818 likely Colorado voters from October 21st to 23rd. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.4%.

The PPP survey  backs up the latest Magellan poll that put Hickenlooper and Tancredo in a statistical tie at 44-43,  and casts even more doubt on the recent Denver Post/Survey USA poll, which put Hickenlooper on top by six.  Ben DeGrow has an excellent analysis here.

Given the Magellan survey may have understated Tancredo’s likely performance given that it relied on 2008 and earlier voter turnout patterns instead of the likely more conservative turnout advantage this election, there’s a good shot Tancredo is really in the lead.  PPP, which often works to spin the results favorably for the Democrat, had this encouraging outlook for Tancredo supporters:

Hickenlooper’s been unable to rise above the 47-48% mark in PPP’s polls over the last three months. When Tancredo and Maes were splitting the vote relatively evenly it looked like that would be enough to win but now Hickenlooper really appears to be at risk of losing. Given the trajectory of the race it is not inconceivable that Tancredo could pick up a good chunk of even the small amount of support Maes has remaining and 38% of the undecideds are Republicans to only 23% who are Democrats. Those two data points suggest that Tancredo still has more room to grow.

A few months ago, I and several other conservative bloggers thought Business Word’s Don Johnson had truly lost it in predicting Maes would only garner five percent.  I thought the “R” after the name Maes would in and of itself guarantee him a much higher split.  Not only is my being so badly wrong encouraging for this election, but I think it speaks to the potential strength of conservative and libertarian third-party candidates generally over party label.  I think we are seeing the same phenomenon with Lisa Murkowski in Alaska.

Then again, Maes is a unique case.  PPP’s survey revealed Maes has the lowest favorability ratings of any candidate in the country.

Maes is in a class of his own as the most unpopular candidate running for office anywhere in the country this year. A remarkable 75% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of him to only 8% who see him in a positive light. He’s pretty universally reviled by Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike.

Let’s hope Tancredo keeps growing into his growing room and that Colorado is spared the train wreck that would define a Hickenlooper reign.

Tom Tancredo Organizes Boycott Demonstration of Colo. Governor’s Debate

Tom Tancredo is urging supporters to demonstrate outside of the Club 20 debate in Grand Junction, Colorado on September 11.  The debate will be held only between embattled Republican candidate Dan Maes and Obama Democrat, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper.

Protesters will gather at The Two Rivers Convention Center, which is located at 159 Main Street, at 6:45 p.m.  Tom Tancredo will be there and will comment to the public about his exclusion from the debate and other issues.

Ken Buck Joins List Of Ex-Dan Maes Supporters: U.S. Sen. Candidate Says Maes ‘Struggling’ Over Withdrawal From Colo. Governor’s Race

Ken Buck’s U.S. Senate campaign just released a statement that provides the strongest evidence yet that Colorado Republican candidate for governor, Dan Maes, is seriously considering withdrawing from the race.  Buck has now withdrawn his already less than robust support, saying:

After having a lengthy conversation with Dan Maes, it is clear to me that Dan is struggling to determine the best path for his campaign, his family and for Colorado.   I have decided that I can no longer support his candidacy for governor of Colorado.

This latest loss of support combines with that of all conservative bloggers and the Denver Post, prominent GOP leaders, and perhaps most signficantly, leading Colorado Tea Party activists.  The Republican Governors Association also snubbed the stumbling Maes and refused him financial support.

Republicans have until Tuesday, September 7  to formally announce a replacement for Maes so that the new candidate can make the ballot, should Maes listen to what just about every conservative in the state is urging him to do.

The Democratic candidate, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, is vulnerable after a series of police misconduct scandals where he has at best been tardy and detached, and recent disclosures of his funding for a number of extreme left-wing political organizations, including ACORN.

Right wing conservative candidate Tom Tancredo, running under the ACP banner, has made noises he would opt out of his bid if  Maes withdrew and the Republicans appointed an  acceptable replacement candidate.

Dan Maes Cuts Hickenlooper Lead to 8 Points in Latest Colo. Governor’s Poll

Republican candidate Dan Maes has gained on Democrat John Hickenlooper in the latest poll  from Reuters/Ipsos, and now trails him by only 8 percentage points, 41-33 percent.  Tom Tancredo is running a distant third at 16 percent. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.  And, in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup,  the poll shows Hickenlooper and Maes tied 45-45.

The Reuters poll also shows a four percentage point narrowing of the spread between Hickenlooper and  Maes since the Rasumussen survey conducted on August 11, the day after the primary.  That poll, with the same margin of error, showed Hickenlooper 43, Maes 31, and Tancredo 18.

Though the Maes campaign has not yet commented on the poll, my read is that long-delayed critical coverage of Hickenlooper’s mismanagement of the Denver Police Department has resonated with voters.  Though the polling was conducted August 20-22, the scandal has been erupting for the past two weeks.

Today, the Hick’s  childishly defensive police chief, Gerald Whitman, made a front page story where his tears practically oozed from the Denver Post’s home page, and was mocked in an opinion piece by Denver Post Editor Chuck Plunkett.   All of this follows on the heels of the resignation of Denver Police Department Safety Manager Ron Perea over several beating and perjury incidents by Denver Police officers in which Perea went against investigative recommendations and gave wrist slaps that Hickenlooper had defended before becoming embroiled in electoral turmoil.

Hickenlooper 43, Maes 31, Tancredo 18 in Rasmussen’s First Post-Primary Colo. Governor Poll

In the first post-primary Colorado governor’s race poll, Rasmussen reports Republican nominee, Dan Maes, received a higher than expected 31 percent of the votes when pitted against Democrat Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper and former Congressman Tom Tancredo, running under the American Constitution Party banner.  Hickenlooper received 43 percent and Tancredo 18 percent. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and only five percent (5%) are undecided.

Virtually everyone believes Hickenlooper will win the governorship if the race remains a three-way contest, and Colorado is now ranked Solid Democrat in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.

Rasmussen conducted its  survey of 750 Likely Voters  on August 11, 2010, the day after the Colorado primary.  The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Dan Maes Posts Weak Fundraising Numbers for June in Colorado Governor’s Race

Dan Maes, the grassroots Republican candidate for Colorado governor, reported less than $32,000 in campaign contributions for the June reporting period, according to his filing with the Secretary of State’s office late Tuesday night.  By contrast, his Republican primary opponent, Scott McInnis, posted a respectable $170,000.  And Democrat John Hickenlooper, raised over $500,000.

This low contributions number has to come as a disappointment to Maes supporters, as it is the first reporting period following Maes’ upset victory at the State Assembly, where Maes edged out establishment candidate, Scott McInnis.  The campaign hoped the assembly win would convince contributors that Maes could win and backing him would be a good political investment.  But the $32,000 total is essentially the same as what the Maes campaign raised in the prior reporting period.

Worse, the low fundraising report follows on the heels of news that Maes has  just agreed to settle campaign finance violation charges with a fine of  over $27,000.  The violations involved improper reimbursements from the campaign to Maes directly for such things as mileage expenses.

Both of these campaign finance developments, combined with a recent poll,  mean that Scott McInnis really is the only Republican candidate who can beat the popular, liberal Dem in moderate drag, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper.  Hopefully, McInnis will hop off  his lofty perch, talk to the mainstream media and the bloggers, and stir up the grassroots base and fiscally conservative independents.  Coloradans literally cannot afford a Hickenlooper victory.

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, Dem. Candidate for Governor, Criticizes Bill Ritter As Adversarial Prosecutor of Colorado Businesses -UPDATED

In an address to business executives at the South Metro Denver Chamber of Commerce today, Denver Mayor and Democrat gubernatorial candidate, John Hickenlooper, lambasted the anti-business climate created by lame-duck governor Bill Ritter’s prosecutorial, lawyer-like, adversarial attacks on business–calling them “crazy.”  Don Johnson at businessword has produced another masterfully comprehensive piece on a question-and-answer session that may contain the most substance of anything Hickenlooper has said on the issues since announcing his candidacy after fellow-Dem Ritter announced he would not seek a second term.

Not that we’re claiming to have influenced Hickenlooper’s pointed attack on his fellow Democrat, but on March 10, over a week before Hickenlooper’s statements, I posted this entry here:  Colo. Governor Bill Ritter Shows DA Roots:  Treats Amazon Like Criminal Defendant for Affiliate Move.

This post presented a critique of Ritter and the Dems’ anti-business rhetoric, including this demagogic quote from Ritter:

Amazon has taken a disappointing – and completely unjustified – step of ending its relationship with associates. While Amazon is blaming a new state law for its action, the fact is that Amazon is simply trying to avoid compliance with Colorado law and is unfairly punishing Colorado businesses in the process.

I sincerely doubt Hickenlooper reads our fledgling blog, but Don Johnson’s political and economic blog, businessword,  is one of the most influential in the state,  and in my view the smartest.  Don was generous to link to my post in his hammering of the internet tax and the Amazon reaction thereto, and liked the prosecutorial analogy.  And Hickenlooper is surely bright enough to read the articles of a writer like Johnson, who has posted 31 entries about Hick.  (My blog post was republished as an online article here.  And this blog entry was just published at the same online content provider earlier this evening).

The Donald E.L. Johnson piece deserves a full reading.  While Hickenlooper was hardly as forthcoming as conservatives would  like, he did, based on my read, seem to differentiate himself from many of the failed, anti-business policies of the current Democratic administration that controls all three branches of Colorado government.

Hickenlooper’s attorney/prosecutor critique is a fair one.   Ritter’s failed attempt to turn a 25-year prosecutorial career into a gubernatorial one follows in the wake of failed prosecutors around the country, such as Martha Coakley, Elliot Spitzer, Ken Salazar, Arlen Specter, and a host of others. Though there are exceptions (and maybe Ken Buck is one of them), career prosecutors have a tendency if they gain higher office, to enact more and more laws, and are conditioned from a life spent in courtrooms to finger-pointing, name-calling and throwing their substantial political-legal weight around–often capriciously, sometimes self-servingly.

Undoubtedly, if former Republican Congressman and prosecutor Scott McInnis follows his decisive caucus showing with a gubernatorial primary win in August, we can be sure Hickenlooper will continue the businessman vs. DA meme in the general election campaign. Moreover, given the political climate among conservatives and independents that favors business owners over career politicians, the anti-prosecutor/lawyer theme should also benefit candidates such as Republican state Senate District 16 candidate, Evergreen businessman Tim Leonard.

At the very least, GOP Chairman Dick Wadhams may need to stop calling Hickenlooper “Hickenritter” as he did in this video and this one, embedded and commented upon by Lynn Bartels at The Spot, the political blog for the Denver Post.

Update: Don Johnson writes this morning about Hickenlooper’s rebranding efforts yesterday, and views the tactic as an insincere effort to portray himself as a moderate, while McInnis and Maes waste time fighting each other.  Good read.

Summit County’s Large Unaffiliated Voters Reduce Caucus Turnout: GOP Vice-Chair Knobel Urges Unaffiliated to Stand Up and Pick a Side – Updated

The Summit Daily’s Rob Allen reports 106 Democrats and 88 Republicans participated in the caucuses in Summit, but with the largest “affiliation” being unaffiliated, turnout could have been better.  Summit Republican vice chair Lisa Knobel laid it on the line:  “Stand up, be a leader, pick a side and go to caucus.”

And Knobel is absolutely correct.  While the caucuses are over, the primary is on August 10, and the unaffiliated can make much more difference with contested elections on the Republican side-for governor and for state Senate.  Even libertarian-leaning liberals would be wise to register Republican for the primary, particularly since marijuana laws are currently the topic of major statehouse debate and Summit County voters approved both decriminalization and dispensary operations by margins exceeding 70 percent.

Also, a large percentage of unaffiliated are fiscal conservatives, and with Hickenlooper taking the Fifth Amendment and refusing to comment on taxes or pretty much anything else until the summer, tea party and independent unaffiliateds would be wise to make their votes count in the Republican primary in August if they have any interest in changing Colorado’s economically unsustainable status quo.  (Note that  “Hickenritter’s” Fifth Amendment ploy is a cheap trick that won’t work with voters with half a brain–his tax and spend tendencies can still be inferred from silence, as Don Johnson at businessword did in a damning summation here).  Update-Hickenlooper spoke later today, criticized Ritter big-time, and Johnson covered every detail.  I blogged about it above and linked to Don’s piece.

Summit had a very high turnout in the 2008 election, with 5,075 Democrats, 4,268 Republicans and 7,268 unaffiliated voters hitting the polls.  The state candidate preference poll for GOP for governor was McInnis 57.95 and  Maes 39.77), close to the statewide tally. But Summit Republicans favored Jane Norton overwhelmingly, 44.19% comppared to  Ken Buck at 29.07%.

Liberal Democrat House Representative Christine Scanlan, who is running against Summit GOP Chair Debra Irvine for House District 56,  gushed “the Democrats are lucky to have two excellent candidates running for U.S. Senate.”  I guess.  If a narrow choice between Left and Lefter, in Appointed Senator Benet and Andrew Romanoff,  is what you call lucky.  It would seem Dems and the public would be better off with some surviving Dem moderates in the state, but they seem to be in hibernation.