The Businessword’s Don Johnson reports that David Flaherty, the president and CEO of Magellan, a Republican leaning poll with excellent turnout models, predicts Tom Tancredo will beat Denver Dem Mayor John Hickenlooper in Tuesday’s Colorado governor’s race. Flaherty also predicts Republicans will take both the state House of Representatives and the state Senate.
Other polls show Tancredo trailing in everything from tight contests to a dubious CNN outlier that gives the hard left Hick a double-digit lead.
So why does Magellan think Tancredo will win? According to Don Johnson’s interview with Flaherty:
Flaherty said polls that show John Hickenlooper winning the gubernatorial race are using demographics and turnout numbers that incorrectly skew their results in favor of Democrats.
“I do believe that Tom Tancredo is going to win,” Flaherty declared. In recent polls, Tancredo has about 73% of Republican voters. Flaherty thinks Tancredo will wind up with over 80% of Republicans. It will be in the low 80s, he said.
Tancredo is benefiting from Dan Maes’ decision to stay in the race, Flaherty said. Because Maes stayed in the race, Hickenlooper and the Democrats figured that Tancredo and Maes would split the conservatives’ and unaffiliated voters’ and that they didn’t have anything to worry about. If Maes had dropped out, as Tancredo and Republican leaders asked him to, the Democrats would have attacked Tancredo, he said.
Now that Tancredo is poised to win, Flaherty said, it’s too late for the Democrats to attack Tancredo.
The excellent post at Businessword has lots more details on these races, as well as the attorney general contest.