Tom Tancredo has edged within 3 points of Denver Democratic Mayor John Hickenlooper in the latest Fox News Poll. Hickenlooper now takes 47 percent of the vote to Tancredo’s 44 percent. Maes drew just 6 percent support, down from 10 percent two weeks ago. Seventy three percent of Republicans backed Tancredo over their party’s nominee. Tancredo told crowds this past weekend he needs 80 percent GOP support to win.
The poll of 1,000 likely voters was conducted for Fox News by Pulse Opinion Research on October 30. The poll has a 3 point margin of error, making the race a toss-up. Full demographic cross-tabs are here, and the complete questionnaire is here. The Fox News article also has the polls for key races in other battleground states.
Posted in Colorado Governor, John Hickenlooper, polls, PPC, Tom Tancredo
Tagged Colorado governor, elections, John Hickenlooper, News, Politics, polls, Tom Tancredo
Public Policy Polling, a Democratic-leaning polling firm, just released a poll that shows Hickenlooper’s lead over Tom Tancredo trimmed to only three points in the volatile Colorado governor’s race, 47-44. Dan Maes proved my colleague Don Johnson’s awesome predictive powers by scraping only 5% . PPP surveyed 818 likely Colorado voters from October 21st to 23rd. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.4%.
The PPP survey backs up the latest Magellan poll that put Hickenlooper and Tancredo in a statistical tie at 44-43, and casts even more doubt on the recent Denver Post/Survey USA poll, which put Hickenlooper on top by six. Ben DeGrow has an excellent analysis here.
Given the Magellan survey may have understated Tancredo’s likely performance given that it relied on 2008 and earlier voter turnout patterns instead of the likely more conservative turnout advantage this election, there’s a good shot Tancredo is really in the lead. PPP, which often works to spin the results favorably for the Democrat, had this encouraging outlook for Tancredo supporters:
Hickenlooper’s been unable to rise above the 47-48% mark in PPP’s polls over the last three months. When Tancredo and Maes were splitting the vote relatively evenly it looked like that would be enough to win but now Hickenlooper really appears to be at risk of losing. Given the trajectory of the race it is not inconceivable that Tancredo could pick up a good chunk of even the small amount of support Maes has remaining and 38% of the undecideds are Republicans to only 23% who are Democrats. Those two data points suggest that Tancredo still has more room to grow.
A few months ago, I and several other conservative bloggers thought Business Word’s Don Johnson had truly lost it in predicting Maes would only garner five percent. I thought the “R” after the name Maes would in and of itself guarantee him a much higher split. Not only is my being so badly wrong encouraging for this election, but I think it speaks to the potential strength of conservative and libertarian third-party candidates generally over party label. I think we are seeing the same phenomenon with Lisa Murkowski in Alaska.
Then again, Maes is a unique case. PPP’s survey revealed Maes has the lowest favorability ratings of any candidate in the country.
Maes is in a class of his own as the most unpopular candidate running for office anywhere in the country this year. A remarkable 75% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of him to only 8% who see him in a positive light. He’s pretty universally reviled by Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike.
Let’s hope Tancredo keeps growing into his growing room and that Colorado is spared the train wreck that would define a Hickenlooper reign.
Posted in Colorado Governor, Dan Maes, Donald Johnson, polls, PPC, Tom Tancredo
Tagged Colorado governor, Dan Maes, John Hickenlooper, Politics, Public Policy Polling, Tom Tancredo
Ken Buck’s U.S. Senate campaign just released a statement that provides the strongest evidence yet that Colorado Republican candidate for governor, Dan Maes, is seriously considering withdrawing from the race. Buck has now withdrawn his already less than robust support, saying:
After having a lengthy conversation with Dan Maes, it is clear to me that Dan is struggling to determine the best path for his campaign, his family and for Colorado. I have decided that I can no longer support his candidacy for governor of Colorado.
This latest loss of support combines with that of all conservative bloggers and the Denver Post, prominent GOP leaders, and perhaps most signficantly, leading Colorado Tea Party activists. The Republican Governors Association also snubbed the stumbling Maes and refused him financial support.
Republicans have until Tuesday, September 7 to formally announce a replacement for Maes so that the new candidate can make the ballot, should Maes listen to what just about every conservative in the state is urging him to do.
The Democratic candidate, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, is vulnerable after a series of police misconduct scandals where he has at best been tardy and detached, and recent disclosures of his funding for a number of extreme left-wing political organizations, including ACORN.
Right wing conservative candidate Tom Tancredo, running under the ACP banner, has made noises he would opt out of his bid if Maes withdrew and the Republicans appointed an acceptable replacement candidate.
Posted in Colorado, Colorado Governor, Dan Maes, John Hickenlooper, Ken Buck, PPC, Tom Tancredo
Tagged Colorado governor, Dan Maes, Denver Police misconduct, John Hickenlooper, Ken Buck, News, Politics, Tom Tancredo
Tom Tancredo and Colorado Gop Chair Dick Wadhams appeared this morning on Peter Boyles’ KHOW radio show, and Tancredo immediately accused Wadhams’ of telling him many times, and “in more ways than one,” that Scott McInnis was “untrustworthy” and Dan Maes was a “joke.” Wadhams then called Tancredo a liar, which prompted Boyles to jump in to defend Tancredo. Boyles backed Tancredo up, saying Wadhams had told him the very same thing many times in private conversations.
Wadhams blasted back that Tancredo had told him at the State Assembly that he wanted to “exploit” the power of his supporters among the delegates to keep Maes off the ballot. Tancredo admitted this without hesitation, and said to Wadhams, “and you said that was a good idea, didn’t you?”
The lively and combative exchange is not only entertaining, but may have provided some new revelations on the permutations and combinations triggered by a Tancredo gubernatorial candidacy. It is a must-listen.
The entire radio show from this morning is here, and the Tancredo-Wadhams bout begins at the 10:15 mark.
Regardless of what you think about the issues, one thing is clear: Tancredo mopped the floor with Wadhams as a debater. Not that he needed any help, but he got it from Boyles, who was merciless with Wadhams and took on a role akin to an aggressive defense attorney.
The brawl seemed to leave open the possibility that Tancredo would drop out if the GOP replaced the winner of the August 10 primary with a candidate “stronger” than Tancredo. But with no symmetrical agreement by Wadhams to support Tancredo and not appoint a GOP successor if Tancredo were polling stronger after the primary, Tancredo and counsel Boyles weren’t ready to settle the dispute quite yet.
Posted in Colorado Governor, Dan Maes, Dick Wadhams, PPC, Scott McInnis, Tom Tancredo
Tagged Colorado governor, Dan Maes, Dick Wadhams, News, Peter Boyles, Politics, Scott McInnis, Tom Tancredo