Buck Leads Bennet 50-46 In Latest Fox News Poll

Republican tea party challenger Ken Buck now leads appointed Democratic Senator Michael Bennet 50-46 in the latest Fox News Poll in the race for the U.S. Senate in Colorado.    Pulse Opinion  Research conducted the  survey of 1,000 likely voters on Oct. 30, which carries a  margin of error of only 3 points.   The poll reflects a 4-point increase for Buck over the previous survey conducted two weeks earlier.

Full cross-tabs for the poll are here, and the complete questionnaire is here.  The article on the poll includes analysis of all the other battleground races.

Rasmussen: Ken Buck Clears 50 Percent Mark Against Appointed Dem Michael Bennet In Colorado Senate Race

Rasmussen Reports released a new poll showing Republican U.S. Senate candidate Ken Buck leading appointed Sen. Michael Bennet 51 percent to 43 percent.  The survey  of 750 likely voters  was conducted on Sept. 27, with a margin of error of 4 percent.

“This poll is further evidence that Coloradans are responding positively to Ken’s message of reining in spending and creating jobs,” said Buck campaign manager John Swartout.  “These polls also show that people are sick and tired of Bennet’s dishonest smear campaign against Ken Buck.”

Moving outside the parameters of the press release, the poll shows that Buck’s message of Bennet as a rubber stamp for Obama’s failed economic agenda is sticking, and that Bennet’s wimpy attempts to run and hide from voters and the media are backfiring.

The Rasmussen poll comes just a day after Fox News released a poll showing Buck leading Bennet outside the margin of error.

Ken Buck Joins List Of Ex-Dan Maes Supporters: U.S. Sen. Candidate Says Maes ‘Struggling’ Over Withdrawal From Colo. Governor’s Race

Ken Buck’s U.S. Senate campaign just released a statement that provides the strongest evidence yet that Colorado Republican candidate for governor, Dan Maes, is seriously considering withdrawing from the race.  Buck has now withdrawn his already less than robust support, saying:

After having a lengthy conversation with Dan Maes, it is clear to me that Dan is struggling to determine the best path for his campaign, his family and for Colorado.   I have decided that I can no longer support his candidacy for governor of Colorado.

This latest loss of support combines with that of all conservative bloggers and the Denver Post, prominent GOP leaders, and perhaps most signficantly, leading Colorado Tea Party activists.  The Republican Governors Association also snubbed the stumbling Maes and refused him financial support.

Republicans have until Tuesday, September 7  to formally announce a replacement for Maes so that the new candidate can make the ballot, should Maes listen to what just about every conservative in the state is urging him to do.

The Democratic candidate, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, is vulnerable after a series of police misconduct scandals where he has at best been tardy and detached, and recent disclosures of his funding for a number of extreme left-wing political organizations, including ACORN.

Right wing conservative candidate Tom Tancredo, running under the ACP banner, has made noises he would opt out of his bid if  Maes withdrew and the Republicans appointed an  acceptable replacement candidate.

Ken Buck Leads Bennet 49-40 in Reuters Colo. Senate Poll

In a poll released today,  Reuters/Ipsos reports Colorado Republican Ken Buck leads appointed Democrat Senator Michael Bennet 49-40 percent.  The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.  The Reuters surveys tend to be liberal leaning, so the news bodes well for the Buck campaign’s  focus on Bennet’s “rubber stamp” support for Barack Obama’s failed economic policies.

The Reuters poll also shows a jump for Buck since the Rasumussen survey conducted on August 11, the day after the primary.  That poll, with the same margin of error, showed Buck with a 46-41 lead over  the appointed Democrat incumbent  Bennet.

Ken Buck Leads Michael Bennet 46-41 In Rasmussen Colo. Senate Poll

In the first poll conducted since Colorado’s August 10, 2010 primary, Republican nominee Ken Buck leads appointed Democrat Senator Michael Bennet 46-41 percent, Rasmussen reports.  The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Colorado was conducted on August 11. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Rasmussen notes:

Colorado Republicans appear to have come back together a bit quicker than Democrats. Buck now gets 88% support from GOP voters, while 79% of Democrats support Bennet. The Republican leads by just five points among voters not affiliated with either party.

These results are similar to those from before the primary.

Bennet was the Denver school superintendent who was named to the Senate early last year when Ken Salazar resigned to join President Obama’s Cabinet. A county prosecutor, Buck has consistently led Bennet in matchups back to March, capturing 44% to 48% of the vote. Bennet in those same surveys has earned 38% to 42% support.

The poll is great news for Republicans, as Buck was underfunded in the primary.  According to the Denver Post, Buck raised only $1 million compared to $8 million by the Obama-backed Bennet.  Bennet reportedly has $1.6 million in the bank,  but the GOP establishment is gearing up to provide generous funding to Buck, and it is widely believed the 527 and PAC support provided Buck’s establishment opponent, Jane Norton, will now inure to Buck.  The National Republican Senatorial campaign has also set up a Bennet:  Wrong for Colorado website.  And Senator Jim DeMint’s Senate Conservatives Fund, will continue to support Buck, after providing considerable support for his primary campaign.

Buck Even With Bennet, Norton Trails in Latest Poll: Likely U.S. Senate Dem Primary Winner Receives High Colo. GOP Crossover Support

In a poll just released this morning,  Republican U.S. Senate contender Ken Buck  polls even given a 3.1% margin of error with likely Democrat primary winner, appointed Colorado Senator Michael Bennet.  The poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling, shows Bennet leads Jane Norton 46-40 and Ken Buck 46-43. Romanoff leads Buck 43-42, but trails Norton 43-42.

Colorado’s aberrational voting habits are displayed in what was for me, a stunning 10-11 percent of registered Republican voters crossing over to vote for Bennet.  I assume most of these are Republicans who work for the government, and have gone unscathed by the recession.

The poll is chock full of all sorts of interesting tidbits:

Only the Illinois Senate race can match the Colorado one for the unpopularity of all its combatants. Bennet’s approval rating is a 32/48 approval spread. Usually you don’t get reelected with those kinds of numbers but Norton’s favorability split is a net -16 at 28/44 and Buck’s is even worse at -20 (26/46). Romanoff has the best numbers at -2 (35/37) but that may not mean much if Bennet does indeed survive the primary as our poll yesterday suggested he probably would.

Bennet leads Buck and Norton because he’s counteracting two major national trends confounding Democrats elsewhere. He’s getting more crossover support than either of the Republicans, winning 11% of the GOP vote to Norton’s 6% of Democrats, and 10% of the GOP vote to Buck’s 6% of Democrats. He’s also doing decently with independents, leading Norton 43-36 and trailing Buck only 40-39. We find most Democrats across the country trailing by double digits with indy voters.

Romanoff actually polls better than Bennet with independents, leading Norton by 9 and Buck by 7 with them. But he does worse than Bennet overall because Democratic voters are less unified around him. He gets 73% of the vote from his party against Norton, compared to 83% for Bennet, and 77% against Buck compared to 84% for Bennet.

Whatever the final match up ends up being this race will be close but Democratic prospects are looking better than they did around the start of the year and given Barack Obama’s upside down standing at 44/50 in the state this isn’t a bad place for their candidates to start the general election.

Conservatives can only hope that this Democrat popularity trend claimed by the poll is incorrect – particularly in light of the recent revelations about Bennet’s failed, exotic Wall Street Denver Public Schools debt financing deal that made the front page of the New York Times (but was downplayed in the Denver Post).  Regardless, a good victory speech could easily boost GOP prosepects – something unlikely to come out of the mouth of the patrician Bennet.

Colo. Senator Michael Bennet’s ‘Exotic’ Financial Deal Cost Denver Public Schools Millions In Interest, Wall Street Fees; Leaves Schools Deeper In Debt

The New York Times just published a lengthy and analytical front page article about Colorado appointed Senator Michael Benet’s failed  scheme to shore up $400 million in unfunded pension liabilities when he was  Superintendent of the Denver Public Schools.   The disclosure of the disastrous deal has the potential to derail Bennet’s Senate campaign.   The article confirms Dem rival Andrew Romanoff’s  Wall Street manipulator image of Bennet, and will  benefit  the winner of the Ken Buck – Jane Norton Republican primary duel should Bennet win the Democrat primary on August 10.

The deal was similar to a variable rate loan, and went bust with the financial crisis.  But built in contractual fees made the deal sweet for Bennet’s former colleagues in the investment banking business.

The bankers [JPMorgan Chase] said that the school system could raise $750 million in an exotic transaction that would eliminate the pension gap and save tens of millions of dollars annually in debt costs — money that could be plowed back into Denver’s classrooms, starved in recent years for funds.

To members of the Denver Board of Education, it sounded ideal. It was complex, involving several different financial institutions and transactions. But Michael F. Bennet, now a United States senator from Colorado who was superintendent of the school system at the time, and Thomas Boasberg, then the system’s chief operating officer, persuaded the seven-person board of the deal’s advantages, according to interviews with its members.

Rather than issue a plain-vanilla bond with a fixed interest rate, Denver followed its bankers’ suggestions and issued so-called pension certificates with a derivative attached; the debt carried a lower rate but it could also fluctuate if economic conditions changed.

The Denver schools essentially made the same choice some homeowners make: opting for a variable-rate mortgage that offered lower monthly payments, with the risk that they could rise, instead of a conventional, fixed-rate mortgage that offered larger, but unchanging, monthly payments. …

Bennet claims in the article that they didn’t have any idea the financial crisis was looming, but the NYT’s Gretchen Morgenson  points out that Bear Stearns had just gone under a few weeks before the deal was inked by the school board.   The deal quickly headed south.

In short order, the transaction went awry because of stress in the credit markets, problems with the bond insurer and plummeting interest rates.

Since it struck the deal, the school system has paid $115 million in interest and other fees, at least $25 million more than it originally anticipated.

To avoid mounting expenses, the Denver schools are looking to renegotiate the deal. But to unwind it all, the schools would have to pay the banks $81 million in termination fees, or about 19 percent of its $420 million payroll.

John MacPherson, a former interim executive director of the Denver Public Schools Retirement System, predicts that the 2008 deal will generate big costs to the school system down the road. “There is no happy ending to this,” Mr. MacPherson said. “Hindsight being 20-20, the pension certificates issuance is something that should never have happened.”

A spokesman at JPMorgan, which led the Denver deal, declined to comment. Royal Bank of Canada, which acted as the school system’s independent adviser even though it participated in the debt transaction, declined to comment. Denver school officials said that they had agreed to sign a conflict waiver with Royal Bank of Canada.

How cozy.   And it was the supposed Wall Street expertise of Bennet that got him the job as schools Superintendent and praise for his education system expertise from Barack Obama.

Unlike many school district officials, both men were financially sophisticated and had worked together in the private sector. Mr. Bennet handled investments and structured financial deals for the Anschutz Investment Company, a private concern owned by the billionaire Philip Anschutz that has stakes in telecommunications and oil. Mr. Boasberg, meanwhile, was a deal maker in mergers and acquisitions at Level 3 Communications, a telecommunications concern.

Exotic Deal Had a Spicy Recipe

But the deal was too clever by half.

Joseph S. Fichera, chief executive of Saber Partners, a financial advisory firm that specializes in structured finance, said that the type of transaction pursued by the Denver schools was a false solution for what the issuers want to achieve — lower long-term costs — because the banks selling the deals rarely quantified all of the potential risks involved.

“The issuer [DPS] made a simple financing highly complex and took on substantial risk without knowing how large its downside could be,” he said, referring to the Denver deal. “The advisers and bankers may have disclosed that there were risks, but apparently did not help the issuer truly understand them. They typically present economic outcomes to the issuer only on projected savings and assume away any chance of the risks happening.”

The Times takes Bennet to task for claims that the JPMorgan Chase scheme is actually saving the DPS money.  And school board members contend that the downside risks of the deal were not adequately spelled out by the investment bankers who met with them or by Bennet.

But the savings cited …do not take into account termination fees associated with the complex deal. And had the school district issued fixed-rate debt, Wall Street would not have received the cornucopia of fees embedded in the more complex deal.  (Emphasis added). …

So far, Denver has paid about $9.7 million more in fees for its deal than it would have had it chosen a simpler transaction. …

Agreeing to be locked into a 30-year contract, as public entities have done, is especially costly because getting out of it requires paying penalties to the banks for every remaining year of the transaction.

Debt structuring expert Andrew Kalotay asks a rhetorical question about Bennet’s DPS deal:

“Why would the school district want to do this transaction with all the attendant risks of mispricing and the possibility of unfavorable unwind costs when they could have done a conventional, taxable fixed-rate deal?” he asked.

The Times appears to provide the answer in the next sentence:

Bankers, however, love these deals. In addition to the enormous termination fees they can snare, bankers also get remarketing fees and swap advisory fees.

Termination fees, however, top them all. Like the punishing prepayment penalties some homeowners have to come up with when paying off a mortgage early, termination fees on deals like Denver’s are essentially charges levied to rewrite the terms of a contract.

Though not explicitly saying Bennet engaged in any self-dealing, DPS board member Jeannie Kaplan felt the board was not well served by Bennet and Boasberg:

“Bennet and Boasberg had been presented as financial saviors of the Denver school system, and I sat there wanting to believe what they were saying,” she said. “The board probably should have had their own financial consultant.”

Despite the debt financing, Denver Public Schools barely made a debt in its pension fund liability.  With the plunge in the stock market, DPS still has a hole in its pension fund of about $386 million.  Nothing like having Wall Street financiers in the school system.  Just think what Bennet could do with another six years in the Senate.

Ken Buck Goes Public on U.S. Atty. Friction with Strickland

Ken Buck, the leading Republican candidate for Colorado’s U.S. Senate race,  just made files available to the public from his years at the U.S. Attorney’s office documenting his concerns about a weak case former U.S. Attorney Tom Strickland wanted to file against some pawn shop owners.  Buck turned materials on the case (that included private personnel records otherwise not subject to disclosure) over to the Denver Post, as reported today by Allison Sherry.

The story starts with a pair of Russian immigrant brothers who ran a gun store and pawnshop in Aurora in the 1990s. Gregory and Leonid Golyansky were friends and contributors to the Republican Party — Buck says he knew Gregory Golyansky at the time from Republican society gatherings. …

Federal investigators went to the gun shop in several undercover sting operations from 1996 through 1998, posing as “straw purchasers.” That means two people would come in together, but only the person paying for the gun would have to pass a background check.

Authorities figured this was how career criminals commonly gained access to weapons.

Agents first presented the investigation to the U.S. attorney’s office in 1998, when Buck was chief of general crimes. At the time, Buck and a prosecutor below him declined to file charges because of weaknesses in the ATF probe, Buck said.

Henry Solano, who was then the U.S. attorney appointed by President Bill Clinton, said the ATF never appealed the decision to him. Solano, a Democrat, served in that post until December 1998.

In his view, declining the case “was an appropriate decision,” Solano said in a recent interview.

But when Tom Strickland was sworn in as U.S. attorney the day after a pair of Columbine High School students killed 12 kids and a teacher before killing themselves in April 1999, one of his first priorities was to mount an offensive against gun violence.

So Buck thought the case was lousy, and so did his Dem boss,  Solano.  Then Strickland comes in with Columbine on his mind, and obviously sees political opportunism beckoning.  This is the same Tom Strickland that now serves as assistant Interior Secretary under Ken Salazar.  This would be the  same Tom Strickland that had to be air-lifted out of a rafting trip on the Grand Canyon on April 20 so he could attend to his duties in the gulf oil spill.

This case is also what has had some Jane Norton supporters all abuzz in the comments sections of the conservative blogosphere, including the People’s Press Collective.  So what is Buck’s non-crime here?  He told an attorney for the defense his opinion that the case was weak.  Strickland thought this violated the attorney client privilege under some tortured interpretation.  I say tortured, because the “client” wasn’t Tom Strickland.  The client is the United States of America, and the duty of a prosecutor is not to prosecute a case as hard as possible just because your boss wants you to do that.  A prosecutor has a duty to seek justice on behalf of the public.

Is this the big smoking gun in Ken Buck’s tenure as head of Criminal Prosecutions at the U.S. Attorney’s office that we’ve heard cryptic allusions to?  Ironically, even Bill Ritter’s big bud, Stephanie Villafuerte, thought this case was a dog.  She wrote a memo about the case that the defense attorneys sought to obtain.  Strickland charged the case as a 37-count felony indictment, but it was plead down to the lowest possible misdemeanor, and one day of probation, for one defendant.  Charges against two other defendants were dropped.

By this time Strickland was busy in his failed U.S. Senate run in 2002.  Suthers was aboard as U.S. Attorney, and based on Strickland’s filing of an internal ethics complaint against Buck, issued a letter of reprimand in late 2001.  This letter would have remained a private, personnel file matter but for the disclosure by Buck (though details surrounding it seem to have been leaked by the Norton campaign, possibly via her endorser, Suthers).  And this internal reprimand was in no way a Bar-discipline of any kind against Buck. Ken Buck has a spotless record with the Colorado Office of Attorney Regulation Counsel.

Buck now admits his disclosures were a mistake, though I think that’s debatable.  We need more prosecutors who take their responsibilities seriously and speak out when the boss is pursuing cases for his own political motives and not the pursuit of justice.  As the recent felony mountain biking prosecutions by fellow Penryite and Suthers endorsement recipient, Mark Hurlbert, illustrates, overcharging by prosecutors is a pernicious form of government overreach.  Buck himself recently spoke to me about his concerns about the “overcriminalization” of society.

My only beef with Buck would be that he received about $700 in reported contributions for his Senate run from the Golyanskys.  While this is technically legal, I think it creates an appearance of impropriety,  and I have argued the same about the $2,000 in contributions Mark Hurlbert received from Ali Hasan and family (whom Hurlbert investigated, but declined to prosecute, in 2008).  Unlike Buck, Hurlbert failed to reveal details of his investigation (thereby preventing the public from making its own decision of the merits of Hurlbert’s conduct).  Still, returning  the $700 contributions would be the high road for Buck to take.

Buck’s stance in the Golyansky prosecution was a brave one, and given two well-known Democrat prosecutors agreed with him, and the one who didn’t was Tom Strickland, speaks volumes.  The Penry-led Norton campaign, as Don Johnson recently pointed out, seems truly desperate.  If this is the big dirt they have on Buck, and given the latest polling numbers, maybe Norton  should just bow out now.

Updated: Dems on the attack in predictable fashion.  Good coverage by The Independent’s John Tomasic.  Read the whole DP piece by Sherry, including the 53 comments after the article.  A lot of people seem to get it about how political prosecutor’s offices work.

Colo. Republican State Assembly 2010 – Live Blogging: JJ Ament Crushes Hasan with over 79% for Solo on GOP Ballot; Maes edges McInnis; Buck gets 76.56

UPDATE:  Maes edges McInnis 49.35 to 48.8 for top line on ballot, 3,528 votes cast. JJ Ament ousts Ali Hasan for Treasurer for sole GOP ballot spot gaining a stunning 79% of the vote.  Ken Buck gets 76.5%, eliminating all other opponents but petitioning Jane Norton and Tom Wiens.

I am still undecided for Governor and US Senate, but was a strong supporter of JJ Ament.  Despite Hasan’s recent claims of 40 percent of the delegates, I suspected that things could work out differently with the secret ballot.  I commented on a post at the PPC, that I found it hard to believe 40% of our delegates could be so misguided.  Well they weren’t dumb and they couldn’t be bought.

Tim Leonard’s sole finish yesterday, and JJ Ament’s today show that conservatives are serious about electing intelligent and principled conservatives to turn the state around.

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Ex-Pat Ex-Lawyer will be doing long-distance, live blogging of today’s Republican State Assembly, where the Scott McInnis vs. Dan Maes race for Governor, and the Treasurer’s race between favorite JJ Ament and Muhammad Ali Hasan should produce the most fireworks.

(NB: Blogging not real live until 11:30 – Life intervened to put me behind schedule – I’m providing a catch-up comendium.  OK.  I was up late celebrating Tim’s win !)

Arrival – Noon

Lynn Bartels is on The Spot – watching the more than 3,500 elephants herded in for arrival at the Budweiser Events Center in Loveland.  Ali Hasan’s passenger transport golf carts were on hand with Hasan volunteers behind the wheel.

Ali Hasan Volunteers Shuttle Assembly Attendees (Photo - Lynn Bartels/Denver Post)

Marty Neilson – CUT President Hey! I’m here at the Ken Buck suite. CUT has a table getting lots of traffic. The energy and enthusiasm are fantastic! If we can carry this through November, it will be a Republican victory in CO and the US!  The Budweiser Center is a great venue.

Al Maurer – Also reporting in upon for the early morning shift. Says looks like “Joe G. rounded up the homeless to wave his signs.”

Al Maurer – Further reports boredom for the next two hours.  Boring speeches and boring bureaucratic paperwork.

Al Maurer – Clive Tidwell introduced to a lukewarm reception.  Ken Buck got wild applause when he repeated his line from yesterday about walking out if the MX prez had dissed AZ.

EPAL Commentary – Buck’s line is a cheap throwaway. Conservative pundits point out the real one deserving of criticism is Obama for his dissing of the US.  We hate it if our Prez does apology tours abroad.  This is most free market, conservative MX Prez ever.  Mejicanos don’t like apology tours either, and Calderon has his own home crowd to please.  I also don’t think criticizing one law of one state is akin to criticising the US from a diplomatic etiquette POV.

And this is true whether we agree with the law or not.  If we thought one state of Mexico was doing something we didn’t like, and BO or (preferably) another prez went down and said it, nobody on our side would have a problem (some  “progressives” might).  I’d much rather hear from Buck and the others about real issues, not showy gestures – and I like Buck and agree with 80 percent of AZ law.  Just want some consistency, folks, and want to learn a lot more than we do now about our two Senate candidates.

Bob Moore at the Coloradoan – Has a great summary of Buck’s speech:

Buck drew the loudest ovation of any candidates today. Without mentioning her by name, Buck criticized former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton for bypassing the assembly process and using petitions to qualify for the Aug. 10 ballot.

“This is a great process. It is a process where our candidates need to respect the assembly by coming here and asking for your support.”

Lynn Bartels and The  Spot’s GOP Coverage crew have been doing a great job (and helping my sorry self in the process).  Some excerpts from Lynn Bartel’s gubernatorial summary.  First, on Dan Maes:

Maes got zingers in at both Democratic Gov. Bill Ritter and McInnis.  Maes said his family was behind his run. “You won’t hear me saying I have to go home for family reasons,” referring to Ritter’s decision not to seek re-election.  Maes also said he would bring a business executive background to government, not a lawyer’s background.  McInnis is a lawyer.

Definitely not a good year for GOP lawyers.   From Scott McInnis:

McInnis opened his campaign with a stunner: A Douglas County 9-12er who once backed Maes and contributed money said she “vetted and vetted and vetted” the candidates and decided to go with McInnis.  She said he has a conservative voting record and knows Colorado issues well.

McInnis talked about “jobs, jobs, jobs” and getting rid of Ritter’s executive order allowing state employees to organize.

Now that’s sounding pretty smart for a lawyer.  I believe government employee unionization bears significant responsibility for the economic crisis facing so many states, and represents the greatest threat to the country’s economic future.  Colorado needs to nip this in the bud now, before we go further down California’s road to ruin.  Hopefully McInnis, if elected, will have the backbone to resist complaints by “law and order” and “public safety” proponents who want to give carte banche to law enforcement, fire, and corrections departments.  In California, those groups have done more harm than even teachers’ unions to the state budget’s unfunded pension liabilities.

Al Maurer- further reports – JJ Ament got a very warm reception, Ali Hasan came out flashing his signs about Colorado winners, bailout losers, yadah, yadah, yadah.  Maurer reports he went almost all negtive on Ament – the first candidate of the day to have done so.

Curtis Hubbell – Political Editor at the DP – And a guy who’s always hilarious, has an amusing piece on the Microphone cut-off mania.  He seems to respect GOP Chair Dick Wadhams who can in fact make the “trains run on time.”  Curtis suggests stopwatches as the best gift for your favorite Colorado Republican this year.

Danny Stroud – GOP Candidate for House Dist. 1 – and a very thoughtful candidate rode to the Assembly this morning on his Harley.  He passed this along at about 12:30:

The nomination of Scott Gessler is in process.  Earlier the speeches for the governor and senate races were interesting, but it is clear that Republicans no longer respond to tired phrases such as “let’s take our country back.”   Neither does the “we hate Pelosi” dog hunt.  The most inspiring and well-received speeches were those that talked more generally about American Values.  People want to be inspired by someone that is like them. I call that “leading from the pack”.  It’s not a new idea, but conservatives,  and especially republicans, have lost their way of late.  It is good to see the energy.  I hope people know we are at the beginning of a long fight.

Well put.  It’s exciting because the momentum sure seems to be with us, but we have so much to undo, as well as do.  And undoing things government has already done is much harder than doing new things, enacting more programs, passing more laws, and spending more money.

Great Weekend Colorado GOP.  Thanks to Marty Neilson, Al Maurer and others (you know who you are) for keeping this long-distance blogger informed.

TIM LEONARD WINS SD 16 WITH 71%- KEEPS DA MARK HURLBERT OFF BALLOT-Live Blogging From Dist. Assembly: Multi-County House and Senate; Cong. Districts 2,3,4,5 and 6

Live blogging.  Tim Leonard takes 71% of Assembly vote; ousts  prosecutor, Mark Hurlbert from Gop Ballot.

Tim Leonard Supporters Celebrate (Photo-Lynn Bartels, Denver Post)

Ex-Pat Ex-Lawyer will be live blogging from reports received from people attending the District Assembly today.  We’ll do a separate, live-blog post for the State Assembly tomorrow.

Please Email in any Reports and pictures to Lauraincabo@gmail.com or Leave Comments -You can also Tweet me @ ExPatExLawyer

Schedule:  9:-10 – GOP State Central Committee Mtg.

10:00 – Multi Dist.House Assemblies.  HD 13, HD 33, HD 40, HD 56, HD 60, HD 61, HD 62, HD 63, HD 65.

11:30 – Multi-County Senate Dist. Assemblies – The big contested race here is Senate District 16, an open seat as popular Dem incumbent Dan Gibbs is not seeking re-election. Tim Leonard dominated DA Mark Hurlbert in fundraising and just won (1:00 p.m.) with 71%, keeps “moderate” mountain bike prosecutor off ballot .  Other Senate Districts are SD1, SD2. and SD5.  SD 5 presents delegates with Republicans  Bob Rankin and Wayne Wolf battling it out to challenge Dem incumbent Gail Schwartz.  Degrow calls this one a toss-up, with a slight edge for a Dem hold. Update: Greg Brophy reports Rankin takes sole ballot spot with 82% of delegate votes.

Ben has this to say about SD 2:

A field of three Republicans — Kevin Grantham, Matt Heimerich and Talon Canterbury — has lined up to fill the shoes of the GOP’s retiring state senator Ken Kester. Right now, any of them looks like better odds than the two late-entry Democrats Gloria Stultz and John Webb, neither of whom has reported raising a dime. Likely GOP hold

1:00 – Multi County House Dist. 47 and 64 Assemblies – Republican candidates in these two races have no primary opponents.  In 47 Keith Swerdfeger has two Dem opponents.  The seat is currently Dem, but Ben Degrow calls it leaning GOP pickup.  In Dist. 64, Lisa Grace Kellog takes on incumbent Dem.  Wes McKinley. Ben calls this leans Dem hold.

2:00 – Cong. Dist. 2,3,4 and 5 Assemblies – The 4th Dist. pits Cory Gardner against Tom Lucero.

3:00- Cong. Dist. 6 Assembly

UPDATE – 11:00 a.m. Marty Neilson, CUT President and GOP SD 16 Chair –says she hasn’t seen this much enthusiasm among Colorado Republicans since the 1980s!  Wow!

Sen. Greg Brophy reports that in HD 63,  Jon Becker wonn the nomination with enough delegate votes to keep the others off the ballot.

Lynn Bartels reports as if she too has never seen this many Republicans in one place:

The hotel hallways in outside the meeting rooms are so packed it’s difficult to walk along and check out candidate tables. Think Target the day after Thanksgiving.

UPDATE 11:35 a.m:  Reclaim the Blue’s Al Maurer –says it’s a “zoo.” Al just found a place to sit down and type:

I didn’t expect to see a whole lot going on at the District Assembly today in Loveland. Boy, was I wrong. The state races are not until tomorrow but all the candidates are here today with tables, signs and supporters in campaign t-shirts. I have a Dan Maes t-shirt in my bag–I’m not really a t-shirt kind of guy–and am sporting my People’s Press Collective “credentials.”

I just mat a lady from Elbert County who said this is the first time in her life when she’s met in person all the people she can vote for. What an awesome testament to the level of political activity this year.

There are also some conservative organizations present, such as the Rocky mountain Gun Owners who have recently won the right for concealed carry on Colorado campuses.

We’re also spreading The Constitutionalist Today to people from throughout the state. There is a tremendous hunger for information  that the established media are not filling. I saw one guy with a big, professional-looking video camera walking past with Dick Wadhams, but other than that I haven’t seen them in evidence. I’ve got my flip cam, though.

Gotta love those comments about the cumbersome, old-school MSM.  That’s why I call Lynn Bartels a blogger.  Bloggers are agile and resourceful.

UPDATE: Al Maurer previously tweeted that Ali Hasan has four golf carts on hand to shuttle people around.  Al observes, “nice gesture, but where’s all his money coming from.”  I would assume it’s from the usual place, mommy and daddy.

Sen. Greg Brophy – won with 100 percent and en route to re-election in November.

Greg Brophy Tweets: “Superstar Senate candidate Bob Rankin w/ 82% at assembly on to wipe out Gayle Schwartz in SD5.”

Al Maurer – Says crowd and grassroots participation is extraordinary.  Lots of new faces.  He mentioned a brand new tea party organizer that just started up an Elbert County tea party group.  She told Al they had 41 attendees at the first meeting, and 250 at the next meeting.

Marty Neilson reports at 1:35 p.m. – Ken Buck has a big presence in Room 502 at Embassy Suites.  She also said Tim Leonard had a huge group of supporters, with lots of volunteers celebrating wildly.  Leonard won the 71% needed to oust Hurlbert by two votes, according to Tim Leonard. Both candidates gave excellent acceptance speeches.  Leonard’s nomination was made by Elena Campbell and seconded by Tom Tancredo. Sen. Al White, nominated Hurlbert. Considered the most liberal member of the GOP, White was an early endorser of Hurlbert, an endorsement quickly scrubbed off Hurlbert’s  Facebook page, as noted in this Hitler video spoof.

Al Maurer reports 1:40 – possible linkage between McInnis and Joe G. gubernatorial campaigns.  Somehow, Joe G. got a copy of the delegate list under the table, a no-no.  Then, delegates were called by the same phone service used by Scott McInnis.  It’s been said it’s to McInnis’ advantage to split the anti-establishment vote between Dan Maes and Joe G. and to have all three make the August primary ballot.  Intriguing.

Lynn Bartels at 2:34 – posts about Tim Leonard’s win over DA Mark Hurlbert.  Hurlbert said he’s not sure if he’ll try to petition on or not.  He and Al White claim he’s the most electable in November.  That’s hard to believe given that in four months of campaigning he only managed to find 9 contributors in the entire district.  Leonard had 89 in the district, and 280 donors total.  Leonard raised more money this past quarter than any other GOP senate candidate.

Ali Hasan and his family contributed about 20% of the $10,200 Hurlbert raised.  Hurlbert accepted

Scott Robinson: Legal expert says Hasan case should "raise eyebrows"

the Hasan money despite having investigated Hasan on possible criminal charges in 2008 – a move that creates an appearance of impropriety and “certainly raises eyebrows,” according to noted Colorado criminal attorney, Scott Robinson.

Al White said he could use Hurlbert’s help in the senate.  No doubt Hurlbert would provide it too.  If elected he would make White the second most liberal GOP member of the senate.  Both men seem to think it’s 2008.  Hurlbert’s record of raising budgets and lobbying to raise his own pay 37.5 percent over two years during the recession, won’t draw fiscal conservatives.

Besides,  Hurlbert’s authoritarian views on medicinal marijuana, and his recent inexplicable felony prosecution of a pair of cheating women mountain bike racers in Leadville,  will hurt him with independents and Democrats.   Seemingly oblivious to public will in the matter, Hurlbert was roundly criticized throughout Colorado, nationally, and even in the Denver Post and Vail Daily editorial pages for this  money wasting prosecutorial overreach that he continues to pursue.

Congressional Races

Greg Brophy – tweets at about CD4 at 3:30p.m. – “Lucero gave the weakest speech I’ve seen; couldn’t have earned a vote for dog catcher with that weak stuff.”  Brophy further reports that Buck’s speech was very well received, and Mcinnis was well received.  Brophy calls Cory Gardner’s speech one of the best he’s ever seen. Called out Prez O big time.

Don Johnson is live blogging CD-4 on his businessword blog. He’s a master at this, with his stacatto, Hemmingwayesque prose, and has all sorts of good quotes. Don agrees with Brophy about Cory Gardner’s speech, saying it’s the “best I’ve heard all year on the campaign trail.”

Al Maurer – Reporting from CD-5 notes, with amusement, that frequent anti-Buck blog commenter, Cheri Offner is sitting in fron row.  Jane Norton is there too -as a delegate, she said “when confronted by an activist unhappy with her choice to petition on.”

4:20 p.m.  A.G. John Suthers just spoke about states’ rights to rousing applause.

Cory Gardner wins CD-4 – 5:30 Greg Brophy reports the votes:  Gardner 359, Lucero 110, Medere 123.  Cory gains sole GOP ballot spot.

On The Campaign Trail – Not at Assembly

Danny Stroud – GOP candidate for Denver’s HD 1 already gained his nomination at the local Assembly.  He reports he’ll ride his Harley tomorrow to the State Assembly, but today he’s campaigning in his district.